‘’The problem with our predictions is that we treat each task like it’s a novel problem. We construct a story about how we will complete our work but ignore evidence from similar projects we or other people have done in the past.’’I can highly relate to this statement based on my past experiences. I have that nasty habit of wanting every project to be a fresh new start and imagine that everything will go smoothly this time. But that’s a big fallacy. I don’t really explain where this systematic reasoning comes from. I can’t say that I ignore the past projects but I kind of convince myself that with those past experiences I should be able to avoid or better manage the problems I already encountered. There is some pragmatism in there but mostly unrealistic hope. Because, of course, there are always new problems and especially complex situations we don’t have full control over. Predict and plan for the unknown is very difficult, but I’d like to tell my future self that I should always consider the part of surprises that comes with every project.
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Planning fallacy
‘’The problem with our predictions is that we treat each task like it’s a novel problem. We construct a story about how we will complete our work but ignore evidence from similar projects we or other people have done in the past.’’I can highly relate to this statement based on my past experiences. I have that nasty habit of wanting every project to be a fresh new start and imagine that everything will go smoothly this time. But that’s a big fallacy. I don’t really explain where this systematic reasoning comes from. I can’t say that I ignore the past projects but I kind of convince myself that with those past experiences I should be able to avoid or better manage the problems I already encountered. There is some pragmatism in there but mostly unrealistic hope. Because, of course, there are always new problems and especially complex situations we don’t have full control over. Predict and plan for the unknown is very difficult, but I’d like to tell my future self that I should always consider the part of surprises that comes with every project.